Once again, world’s attention has been focusing on Nigeria, unarguably the giant of Africa and leader of the Black Race. The Presidential, National Assembly, governorship as well as State Assemblies electioneering campaigns have since commenced for the 2019 polls.
However, the high expectations concerning the outcome of the ballot have been placed on the presidential polls coming up early February 2019. Nigeria has over 90 political parties, most of which are fielding candidates for the polls. Curiously, to state the fact, it would appear that only two of the political parties regarded as the behemoths, are the talk of the town as well as issue of the moment. The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the main opposition, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) are the two political gladiators as far as the upcoming elections are concerned.
Whereas, APC has returned sitting President, Muhammadu Buhari and the Vice President, Pastor (Professor) Yemi Osinbajo on the political turf, the PDP has unleashed a powerful combination in the candidatures of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and Mr. Peter Obi, former Vice President and governor respectively. Political watchers say these candidates of the two leading parties are indeed not the best that Nigeria with her rich human capital could produce.
There are candidates like George Muoghalu and Oby Ezekwesili who can fix the country but the system would not allow them to emerge. That political party system in developing democracies such as Nigeria remains a zero-sum or winner-takes-all game whereby the bigger parties tend to swallow the smaller parties. It is this tendency that makes party primaries so rancorous, acrimonious and bloody such as witnessed in APC primaries.
Political contenders seek accommodation in the big parties so that, head or tail, they remain winners especially in a situation whereby having the party’s ticket is perceived as being already elected under the fatally flawed elections normally conducted in Nigeria.
2019 And The Change Maxim
It is often said that the only thing permanent in life is change. This truism if and when applied to the current Nigerian political situation and space remains ever-green. The APC has used the slogan of ‘change’ to dislodge the then ruling PDP at the centre in 2015. Nigerians desire change for the better hence there is the general feeling of disillusionment, disenchantment, disappointment and betrayal against the APC- led government at the centre. The present administration has since lost the public trust and the electorate appears to be earnestly yearning for yet another ‘change’ hence the Atiku-Obi ticket tends to be the fastest selling offer at the moment.
Without equivocation, fear, let or hindrance, it is like Atiku has already won the presidential election judging by public opinion. Both local and foreign commentators have been predicting victory for Atiku and his PDP. Again, from all intents and purposes, it appears that the rejuvenated, re-packaged PDP is set to return to power going by the ways and manner it has so far comported itself especially conducting a peaceful presidential primary in Port Harcourt where Atiku defeated over 12 other hopefuls to clinch the ticket.
But whether the collapsed Wadata House, Abuja, headquarters of PDP, which caved in spiritually in 2015, has indeed been properly rebuilt would depend on the outcome of 2019 polls. What are the burning issues pertaining the election? There are several vexatious challenges trying to eat up the fabric of the nation-unemployment, hunger, insecurity, Boko Haram/Fulani herdsmen killings, ethnic nepotism, marginalisation, lopsided appointments, corruption, re-structuring, ethnic agitations, armed robbery, kidnapping, ritual killings, cyber-crime, incompetent leadership, non-performing economy, labour crisis, among others.
The position of voters on some of these issues is expected to determine the outcome of the election. Both Buhari and Atiku have since released their political manifestoes although Nigerians are not ready to be deceived again by the empty promises of self-seeking politicians. However, Atiku appears to have a better recipe (therapeutic solution) to the nagging problems especially through his youth empowerment and employment plans.
The choice of Peter Obi has yielded more political dividends for the Atiku ticket. Obi, a devout Catholic who attends morning masses daily, is noted for his humility and prudent management of men and materials as demonstrated during his days at Government House, Awka, Anambra State. With over 14 academic and professional qualifications in Financial Management, Obi would offer to Nigerians better management of the economy than APC which Achille’s heels remain putting misfits, and non-performers in key positions. Again, for now, observers say that Atiku-Obi ticket has more national acceptability and outlook than the Buhari-Osinbajo flag, perceived as Fulani-Yoruba alliance.
The Atiku-Obi ticket would convincingly sweep the polls in the South-East, South-South, North Central and even North-East. Buhari who hails from North-West is expected to dominate the vote in the area, do good in the North-East, assuring Leah Sharibu and others are freed while South-West remains a conundrum for both candidates.
But for Osinbajo, most Yorubas detest the Buhari ticket but since in Nigeria, tribalism comes before nationalism, Buhari would have a slight edge in South- West. So, in terms of national spread, Atiku is expected to emerge victorious at the end of the day if the elections are free and fair.
INEC, Security Agencies and 2019
There has been palpable fear that the Mahmoud Yakubu-led Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) does not have the capacity to deliver acceptable election outcome next year. Examples of what transpired at the recent Ekiti and Osun States governorship polls provide the garnish for the pessimists. Again, intimidation of voters by security operatives may mar the coming polls-voters intimidation represents a major plank of electoral malpractices.
There is also the concern that the electoral body may make ‘Kwashiokor’ arrangement in states and zones where the APC has no chances while deploying its arsenals to areas where the incumbent president is highly favoured. In fact, there are several concerns by both local and foreign bodies about the alleged complicity of INEC and integrity of the forthcoming polls. For instance, how many out of the nearly 200 million Nigerians would vote? How many eligible voters possess PVCs? Apart from voter apathy being expected, analysts have equally warned that security agencies especially soldiers and police officers should not be used to manipulate results.
Therefore, the 2019 polls from all indications already appears to becoming one of the worst in the annals of the country particularly in this era of vote-buying, (either in form of FG’s micro-credit scheme a.k.a trader moni, stomach infrastructure or others), ballot box snuffing and so on, granted that the fears are not allayed by INEC.
Only when the result reflects the popular will of the people would the election be said to be peaceful, free and fair. For now, given the desperation of APC and its flag bearer to retain power as well as the high hopes of PDP and Atiku coupled with the full backing of Obasanjo and co. coalition to clinch power, only time will tell how 2019 would play out. The outcome of the election determines the shape of things to come.
Let the Jonathan’s refrain, “The ambition of anyone is not worth the blood of any Nigerian,” be the watchword of the contenders. However, ‘change’ is in the air, for God is with Peter Obi.
Ifeanyi Alia,
Lagos.
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