To restate Falana’s insight is to recall that someone’s “worst year ever” as 2016 is commonly described, was another man’s platform for achieving economic turnaround. More generally, recession however dire, contains at the borders opportunities for some to reap large dividends while, of course, throwing the majority into a worsening misery.
So, the prospects of 2017 becoming a Happy New Year, as we all wished one another in the last fortnight, are themselves dependent on one’s position in a highly unequal society. That said, the more important question is: Will it be a happier or at least less frustrating year than 2016, for the majority of Nigerians? Well, President Muhammadu Buhari and the authors of the 2017 budget believe that they have packed enough goodies into that document to make the year less harrowing than the past one. Optimistically tagged a Budget of Recovery and Growth, the plan statement seeks to reflate the economy through big spending, in certain key areas in order to jumpstart lagging infrastructure, put money in the pockets of Nigerians and create jobs. A recent markup in the price of oil, to close to $60 per barrel, appears to boost the prospects of recovery alluded to in the budget.
Still on the cheerful wavelength, government, the military in particular, made a rebound close to Christmas Day, by overthrowing the dreaded and redoubtable Sambisa Forest stronghold of Boko Haram terrorists. This magnificent victory, described as a Christmas gift to Nigerians, reverses the image of a declining army and ragged state, unable to maintain the territorial integrity of the country. That triumph may or may not mark the end of Boko Haram; but it sends a warning all around that the much lamented decay of the Giant of Africa is being replaced by a more promising mien. Also, at the end of 2016, the much awaited payment of N5,000 through the Conditional Cash Transfer Scheme, to poor Nigerians appears to be underway. In the same category, another social protection programme, N-Power Volunteer Corps, aims to provide 5,000 jobs to Nigerian graduates. If followed through, these policies may make 2017 less miserable, for those who stand to benefit from them.
However, the numbers involved, even when we include the recently commenced National HomeGrown Feeding Programme, are comparatively slim, given the fact that there is a difference, between succour for the distressed and genuine empowerment for the able-bodied with its projected multiplier effects.
The other challenge is that unless government notches up on its capacity to implement sound policies, the anticipated gains of the programmes may not be realised. That point applies more generally, in relation to the possibility of successfully implementing, the N7.3tn 2017 budget. The black box in the delivery of welfare benefits continues to be the organisational and implementation lacuna whereby, well-meaning policies are either aborted or truncated on the altar of inefficient and corrupt state institutions, as well as overpoliticisation of nearly every aspect of social life to the detriment of good governance.
A related problem which may have a bearing on the prospect of a happy or dismal year is this aura of incompetence that hovers around the administration, in the economic policymaking area especially. Too many policy reversals, too many guessing games, too many empire builders from different departments of government, leading to policy chaos have created the impression that several ministers and government personnel have stepped into shoes which are too large for their expertise. For example, as this column is being finalised, alarm bells are ringing concerning yet another hike in the price of petrol with a predictable domino effect on an already hyperinflated economy. If this becomes a reality, the tentative hopes for a Happy New Year may slowly begin to dissolve into another nightmare of coping or being stressed by a breakaway inflation. Hopefully, the much anticipated overhaul of the cabinet will inject a new dynamism, fresh momentum and badly lacking expertise in key policy areas. This time round, government should allow expertise and proven competence to trump politics, by headhunting for the best and brightest Nigerians who have the training and temperament to make a difference.
There are other problems, not the least of which are the convulsions arising from the unresolved and downplayed National Question. As the Afenifere recently graphically expressed it, “Buhari may have won the war in Sambisa, but he has yet to win the peace across Nigeria”. The tragic killings in the increasingly ungovernable southern Kaduna communities are the latest metaphor, for the raging tumult derived from perception and actual reality of ethnic and religious oppression. It is hard to see, for how long Buhari can evade an upfront coming to grips with the agenda to rejuvenate and reinvent Nigeria, by calling a roundtable around the National Question. In the event, that this does not happen, the nation runs the risk of being the poorer for it with the possibility that matters may deteriorate in the run-up to 2019 elections.
When it comes to quality of life, health, education and social infrastructure are crucial determinants. It is to be regretted therefore, that health and education received comparatively reduced attention in the 2017 budget at a time when these sectors are besieged. For example, a paltry allocation of a mere N50bn to a distressed health sector does not reckon with the possibility of the perennial outbreaks of epidemics or of a vibrant department that has to do with life and death. What this means is that Nigerians, at least those who can afford it, will continue to put pressure on scarce foreign exchange in the search for reprieve, in those areas of social life that concern them most. It would have been better, if as part of a holistic social protection policy, government had prioritised spending on health and education, even if this meant that less money would have been voted for overseas travels of the President and his deputy.
It is of course too early to speculate on how the ongoing realignment of political parties will turn out in the course of the year; what is clear however, is that the current two major parties are likely to undergo substantial reconfiguration considering the crises that are raging in them. From the point of view of a happy year for most Nigerians. What is important is that the parties emphasise participatory politics, reduce the influence of godfathers and cabals as well as emphasise politics for service rather than for personal consumption.
All told, 2017 will turn out to be happier than last year if both state and society focus their energies on governance renewal and the delivery of welfare benefits to the majority of the citizens.
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