It’s what happens after Nigeria’s election that scares us by Adaobi Tricia Nwaubani(Observer)

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The forthcoming presidential elections in Nigeria are starting to make me feel as if my country is preparing for war.

I want Nigeria to enter a new phase in our emerging democracy, but judging by the thoughts expressed by many citizens, you would imagine that the results will be determined by bayonets rather than by ballot.

We were meant to be going to the polling booths today – 14 February – to cast our votes. But after last week’s dramatic postponement, the election will now be held on 28 March. This delay is ostensibly to give multinational forces enough time to launch a concerted attack on Boko Haram. Many Nigerians, however, feel that the government simply wants some extra time to regroup its campaign forces.

The 2015 elections are the most closely contested since the end of military rule in 1999. The PDP has been in power for the past 15 years, but for the first time there is a robust opposition party, the APC. Surveys show the two running neck and neck.

After worrying about – and, hopefully, winning – this planned multinational war against Boko Haram, the Nigerian government’s election battle will be a direct confrontation between the Niger delta region in the south-east, from where President Goodluck Jonathan hails, and the north – which is home to his main challenger, General Muhammadu Buhari.

In 2011 hundreds lost their lives when riots broke out in the north of Nigeria following Buhari’s election defeat to Jonathan. Last month some young activists from the Niger delta declared they would “go to war” if Jonathan’s re-election bid fails. Many Nigerians who are not from those regions will no doubt get caught in the crossfire. Some of my loved ones are worried that I do not have a valid visa with which to flee to the west if uncontrollable chaos breaks out after the election.

I am not afraid for myself. I am more concerned about the long-term stability of my country. Boko Haram has already caused too much carnage. How many more senseless killings can one country stand?

While on the campaign trail in the north, Jonathan’s convoy has been pelted with stones. In response Victor Ben, a former militant from the Niger delta, said of Jonathan’s attackers: “Whether they like it or not, President Jonathan will win. Now that oil is below $50 a barrel, they want to use Boko Haram to take power.”

The 28 March vote will be the first in Nigeria to be conducted with the spectre of Boko Haram in the background. Increasing terrorist attacks in the north over the past four years have provided politicians with an unprecedented tool to sow mistrust, exploiting the country’s longstanding ethnic and regional divisions.

Many of Jonathan’s supporters claim that Boko Haram is simply a ploy to make Nigeria ungovernable under his leadership. They believe Jonathan is paying the price for being from a minority group, and for daring to default on an alleged gentleman’s agreement within his party that allowed him to rule for only one term before handing over power to a northerner. The president himself has openly alleged that there are saboteurs and Boko Haram collaborators within his government.

On the other hand, the APC insists that Jonathan is “clueless” about how to handle the insurgency. They paint him as apathetic towards the suffering of the people in the north. The success or failure of the government’s planned efforts against Boko Haram over the next six weeks may very well be a huge factor in determining the outcome of the polls.

Like many Nigerians, I hope the 2015 elections will bring change to Nigeria. If Jonathan wins, it could be an opportunity to leave a more inspiring legacy following his unimpressive first term. If Buhari wins, it could be an opportunity for him to right all Jonathan’s wrongs, to quell Boko Haram once and for all, and to resuscitate the country’s economy.

But if Jonathan loses, his supporters in the Niger delta may make good on their threat to go to war. If Buhari loses, his supporters in the north may begin razing and maiming at will. The 28 March vote will be a test of how efficiently Nigeria can conduct a free and fair election. But it will also be about how well my country can handle yet another moment of intense inter-ethnic tension.

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